Prediction intelligence · public data

Weather odds, with the assumption visible.

Search Polymarket, inspect a public trader sample, and model weather buckets. No wallet connection, no hidden execution, no live funds.

Weather scenario lab

What does your forecast imply?

Supply a forecast, bucket bounds, and uncertainty. The model returns the probability mass inside that bucket so you can compare it with market odds.

About Weather Markets

Turn a weather forecast into market odds

Weather Markets turns a forecast and an honest uncertainty into the probability that the result lands in a market's bucket, so you can compare it with what the market is charging. The assumption stays on screen, so you can see exactly what the number rests on.

How it works

  1. Enter the forecast and the low and high edges of the bucket. Leave one blank for an open-ended bucket.
  2. Set how uncertain the forecast is.
  3. Calculate the scenario and compare its fair price with the market's odds.

What you get

  • The modelled probability of landing in the bucket
  • A fair price to compare with the market
  • The assumption behind it, in plain view
  • Scenarios saved to your brain

Price Free scenario lab.

Questions

Is it free?
Yes. Weather Markets is a free scenario lab.
Is this a weather forecast?
No. You bring the forecast. The lab works out what that forecast implies for a market bucket, and it is not a forecast or a trading recommendation.
Where do I find weather markets?
Search them in Prediction Lab, then bring a market's bucket here to price it.

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